Funny how the attempted push towards Kharkiv by the Russians to get within artillery range of the city does not count as an escalation, but allowing Ukraine to push back and target their Russian staging areas is supposedly escalatory.
And the notion that we cannot know if Putin really wants to negotiate leaves me utterly baffled. Putin doesn't even accept the Ukrainian government as a sovereign entity to negotiate with. The Kremlin's rhetoric on this point is crystal clear. They consider Ukraine a "vassal" and want to negotiate with the United States.
This analysis omits discussion of the acceleration that a Russian victory in Ukraine would have with respect to the psychological, disinformation, and propaganda war that Russia, China, Iran, N. Korea, and Venezuela is waging upon the West. ,
I fear the White House has drunk its own kool aid on the democracy vs autocracy framing of its foreign policy, therefore seeing Ukraine success or failure through the prism of China and Taiwan, thereby magnifying the stakes of the Ukraine war which has led Biden to escalate to prevent Ukraine from losing, despite the risks of a Russian response
Hi Emma, Thanks for article. I enjoyed reading it even though I do not agree with some of the points. For instance, Assumptions 5 and 9 or the relationship between 'ground' and 'winning,' in my opinion realist strategy needs to look at 'winning the peace' which brings the relationship to 'ground' into a different perspective. If the war stopped today, Ukraine would probably survive and continue to be economically viable trading via Odessa. However, the questions are: How long would that situation last? And, from a realist position is it better to support Ukraine now when Russia has clearly over-extended itself? Or to settle into a long-term Cold War waiting for the next Russian offensive, that is likely to be better planned and executed? Essentially, my opinion is that 'ground' like the 'Crimean Land Bridge' is an indivisible interest for Ukraine and for its supporters because it provides a base for future aggression. However, the article is thought provoking and I agree that any conflict planning should start with clear strategic goals.
Ms. Ashford's Overtone window is not as narrow as the mainstream, but statistically, it is still there. Nothing like Prof. John Mearsheimer, or Col Davis or Col McGregor or Major Scott Ritter.
On March/April 2022, Ukraine agreed to the main Russian request, to return to neutral status it had prior to 2019. You know, like Mexico (to apease the US) and like Ireland (to apease the UK).
Ms Ashford still clings to the idea that it is right and proper for Ukraine to join NATO and endager Russia's security, despite OECD accords from Astana and Istanbul stating that enhancing one's security to the detriment of another is a no-no thing. But hey, "rules based order". As in the US is breaking its own laws in supporting Israel. What big deal then to break international law, eh?!
As for Russia's unprovoked (or pre-emptive as Prof Mearsheimer likes to put it), facts are on the side of Russia...
2014 Coup sponsored by the US ($5 billion dollars per V Nuland) with the goal of making Ukraine a bulwark against Russia. Over 50 people were burned alive in Odessa and over 14000 (over 2500 civilians killed by UKR Army) died between 2014 and 2022 in Donbass. In the meantime, the west has tried to stall for time with Minsk I & II (from the main actors' mouth) so to strengthen UKR. All this is setting the stage.
President Putin, a lawyer, has made sure to cross all the t's and dot all the is to present the war as a war that was tryin to avoid "genocide".
The following facts are supporting this:
1. In March 2021, Ukraine enacted legislation to regain all its territories not under its control by any means necessary, including war.
2. Ukraine has moved big army contingents at the border to Donbas in April. Never removed them from there.
3. The US has rejected Russia's proposals for negotiating a new security architecture for Europe.
4. In early February 2022, Ukraine started shelling Donbas massively, as reported by OECD observers.
5. The two separatist regions have asked Russia to recognize their independence and support them defend against the imminent Ukrainian onslaught.
6. Russia recognized the two republics' independence on February 22, 2024. The West immediately imposes harsh sanctions on Russia, including disconnection from SWIFT and freezing of national assets.
7. Russia invoqués Article 51 of UN Charter and attacks Ukraine to protect the two separatist republics. Same way US/NATO attacked Serbia in 1999 to avoid genocide (there was only one mass grave with 30 unknown men discovered that created this excuse, as opposed to the about 2500 civilian ethnic Russians killed by Ukraine between 2014 and 2022).
8. UKR abandons any negotiations for peace in April 2022 at the pressure of UK and US.
In the US nobody seems to remember President's Obama quip that Russia has escalatory dominance in Ukraine.
So Ms Asford spins and writes but refuses to narrow in the actual problems, that the US wants to run the world and to eliminate any country that has the capability to hurt US. Not the intent, the capability. Projection much?! What do the American people have to say about this? America, Fuck , yeah!? Maybe some, but not the majority, and definitely not when a nuclear WWIII is likely...
Also Ms Asford should read and watch more the full statements of Russian officials, including Mr. Putin.
The very mobile motorbike units do manage to outrun FPVs and thus reach UKR lines and storm them, and that DIY cage, even if it looks shabby, has the ability to not let the soldier be killed. The main thing is its effectiveness, and if it is cheap, even better. The sturdy RUS approach to war beats the western complex platforms that fail constantly when facing realities and ruggedness of real combat.
I don't read Russian. The information presented is all from western sources. You can check. I know it doesn't make that a compelling story, but those are the facts. Deal with it.
The Odessa massacre was not a Russian false flag, but an action of the Azov Batallion protected by the coup government.
We all chose what we believe. It is part and parcel what a young Russian student I met in 2015 told me about one of his friends back home who served in the Russian forces. They were deployed in Donetsk despite Russia maintaining that they had no troops there and that all the the fighting in Eastern Ukraine was a spontaneous outbreak of a civil war.
It is such a big difference between helping the separatists in Donbas and the fact that Russian speaking Ukrainians in Odessa, protesting the coup in Kiev and the illegal replacement of a democratically elected president with an ultranationalist party that immediately started persecuting Russian speakers ended up burned to crisp by the Azov batalion.
4. Nobody in Washington, Brussel or Kiev cares a fig about Ukraine or Ukrainians, much less all the lofty talk about "Freedom And Democracy(R)".
The sole rationale behind Ukraine is to hurt Russia as much as possible, using any means available.
Russian indecision and dithering have only made the problem worse.
Funny how the attempted push towards Kharkiv by the Russians to get within artillery range of the city does not count as an escalation, but allowing Ukraine to push back and target their Russian staging areas is supposedly escalatory.
And the notion that we cannot know if Putin really wants to negotiate leaves me utterly baffled. Putin doesn't even accept the Ukrainian government as a sovereign entity to negotiate with. The Kremlin's rhetoric on this point is crystal clear. They consider Ukraine a "vassal" and want to negotiate with the United States.
No offence but I think you are wrong. Check out Phillips P O'Brien who can explain it better than I can.
These are Putin trolls. They believe their bs.
This analysis omits discussion of the acceleration that a Russian victory in Ukraine would have with respect to the psychological, disinformation, and propaganda war that Russia, China, Iran, N. Korea, and Venezuela is waging upon the West. ,
Waging a "psychological, disinformation, and propaganda war" on the people who have Hollywood and Apple on their side?
Go on pull the other one, it has bells.
Or are you just opposed to freedom of speech?
So Apple is now in the disinfo business? Supposedly working for the CIA? Who knew?! /s
If you are not aware of the cooperation between Big Tech and the spooks...
Sorry, but Apple doesn’t run bot networks for the CIA. They are known though to remove pro-democracy content from their app store on China’s behest.
Because bot networks are the only form of cooperation known.
Feckless Russia. Too many were serfs for too long..
Ethnic reductionist as well as nonsensical. Because everyone knows that serfs are masters of propaganda.
Do you also throw out wild stereotypes of Jews?
You mean facts, as they happen is "propaganda war" and "disinformation"?
I fear the White House has drunk its own kool aid on the democracy vs autocracy framing of its foreign policy, therefore seeing Ukraine success or failure through the prism of China and Taiwan, thereby magnifying the stakes of the Ukraine war which has led Biden to escalate to prevent Ukraine from losing, despite the risks of a Russian response
No more proxy wars
Hi Emma, Thanks for article. I enjoyed reading it even though I do not agree with some of the points. For instance, Assumptions 5 and 9 or the relationship between 'ground' and 'winning,' in my opinion realist strategy needs to look at 'winning the peace' which brings the relationship to 'ground' into a different perspective. If the war stopped today, Ukraine would probably survive and continue to be economically viable trading via Odessa. However, the questions are: How long would that situation last? And, from a realist position is it better to support Ukraine now when Russia has clearly over-extended itself? Or to settle into a long-term Cold War waiting for the next Russian offensive, that is likely to be better planned and executed? Essentially, my opinion is that 'ground' like the 'Crimean Land Bridge' is an indivisible interest for Ukraine and for its supporters because it provides a base for future aggression. However, the article is thought provoking and I agree that any conflict planning should start with clear strategic goals.
Ms. Ashford's Overtone window is not as narrow as the mainstream, but statistically, it is still there. Nothing like Prof. John Mearsheimer, or Col Davis or Col McGregor or Major Scott Ritter.
On March/April 2022, Ukraine agreed to the main Russian request, to return to neutral status it had prior to 2019. You know, like Mexico (to apease the US) and like Ireland (to apease the UK).
Ms Ashford still clings to the idea that it is right and proper for Ukraine to join NATO and endager Russia's security, despite OECD accords from Astana and Istanbul stating that enhancing one's security to the detriment of another is a no-no thing. But hey, "rules based order". As in the US is breaking its own laws in supporting Israel. What big deal then to break international law, eh?!
As for Russia's unprovoked (or pre-emptive as Prof Mearsheimer likes to put it), facts are on the side of Russia...
2014 Coup sponsored by the US ($5 billion dollars per V Nuland) with the goal of making Ukraine a bulwark against Russia. Over 50 people were burned alive in Odessa and over 14000 (over 2500 civilians killed by UKR Army) died between 2014 and 2022 in Donbass. In the meantime, the west has tried to stall for time with Minsk I & II (from the main actors' mouth) so to strengthen UKR. All this is setting the stage.
President Putin, a lawyer, has made sure to cross all the t's and dot all the is to present the war as a war that was tryin to avoid "genocide".
The following facts are supporting this:
1. In March 2021, Ukraine enacted legislation to regain all its territories not under its control by any means necessary, including war.
2. Ukraine has moved big army contingents at the border to Donbas in April. Never removed them from there.
3. The US has rejected Russia's proposals for negotiating a new security architecture for Europe.
4. In early February 2022, Ukraine started shelling Donbas massively, as reported by OECD observers.
5. The two separatist regions have asked Russia to recognize their independence and support them defend against the imminent Ukrainian onslaught.
6. Russia recognized the two republics' independence on February 22, 2024. The West immediately imposes harsh sanctions on Russia, including disconnection from SWIFT and freezing of national assets.
7. Russia invoqués Article 51 of UN Charter and attacks Ukraine to protect the two separatist republics. Same way US/NATO attacked Serbia in 1999 to avoid genocide (there was only one mass grave with 30 unknown men discovered that created this excuse, as opposed to the about 2500 civilian ethnic Russians killed by Ukraine between 2014 and 2022).
8. UKR abandons any negotiations for peace in April 2022 at the pressure of UK and US.
In the US nobody seems to remember President's Obama quip that Russia has escalatory dominance in Ukraine.
So Ms Asford spins and writes but refuses to narrow in the actual problems, that the US wants to run the world and to eliminate any country that has the capability to hurt US. Not the intent, the capability. Projection much?! What do the American people have to say about this? America, Fuck , yeah!? Maybe some, but not the majority, and definitely not when a nuclear WWIII is likely...
Also Ms Asford should read and watch more the full statements of Russian officials, including Mr. Putin.
The Ukrainians overrule your ‘special military operation’ lol!
How? By going to the cemeteries by tens of thousands?
That would be the Russians. Their new armor.
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1797267962220458308/photo/1
The very mobile motorbike units do manage to outrun FPVs and thus reach UKR lines and storm them, and that DIY cage, even if it looks shabby, has the ability to not let the soldier be killed. The main thing is its effectiveness, and if it is cheap, even better. The sturdy RUS approach to war beats the western complex platforms that fail constantly when facing realities and ruggedness of real combat.
lol! You believe that bs.
It is not me that you should worry about: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-us-weapons/
Even Odessa was a Russian false flag op.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1653371089773293584.html
Nevertheless, thank you for succinctly representing the Kremlin position.
I don't read Russian. The information presented is all from western sources. You can check. I know it doesn't make that a compelling story, but those are the facts. Deal with it.
The Odessa massacre was not a Russian false flag, but an action of the Azov Batallion protected by the coup government.
The Twitter thread I linked to is written in English by an Odessa resident who witnessed what happened first hand. Deal with it.
Yeah, it really looks very authentic...
Some of the longer clips I have seen show a different story...
We all chose what we believe. It is part and parcel what a young Russian student I met in 2015 told me about one of his friends back home who served in the Russian forces. They were deployed in Donetsk despite Russia maintaining that they had no troops there and that all the the fighting in Eastern Ukraine was a spontaneous outbreak of a civil war.
This friend back then told him he won't be able to stay in touch with him on social media anymore, because of this: https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-soldiers-social-ukraine-2014-7
It is such a big difference between helping the separatists in Donbas and the fact that Russian speaking Ukrainians in Odessa, protesting the coup in Kiev and the illegal replacement of a democratically elected president with an ultranationalist party that immediately started persecuting Russian speakers ended up burned to crisp by the Azov batalion.